The U.S. stock market has been on an undeniable tear for over three years, powered by a blistering AI-driven rally that has defied gravity. However, beneath the surface of record-breaking indices, a stark divergence is emerging. While the S&P 500 pushed above 7,000 for the first time in January 2026—following gains of 23.3% in 2024 and another 16% in 2025—the people running America’s biggest companies are suddenly selling into this strength at a pace not seen since the last major market peak.
The Insider Warning Signal
According to data cited by Maverick Equity Research, corporate insider selling has surged to its highest sell-to-buy ratio in five years. The firm noted in a recent analysis that insiders are capitalizing on current high valuations much like they did during the “crazy valuations” of 2021—a move that proved prescient right before the 2022 bear market.
This insider exodus is happening just as major institutions are raising flags about the sustainability of the rally. The IMF warned last quarter that “sky-high stock valuations,” particularly in AI-linked sectors, are increasing the risk of disorderly corrections. Similarly, Fidelity International’s January 2026 outlook highlighted that elevated valuations and index concentration have already triggered profit-taking and volatility. Northern Trust Asset Management echoed these concerns, pointing out that market leadership remains unusually concentrated in a small group of mega-cap stocks.
While the rally may still have legs, the aggressive selling by insiders serves as a flashing warning signal. Yet, amidst this macro uncertainty, individual financial firms are taking steps to insulate themselves through strategic discipline, as evidenced by recent moves at Victory Capital.
Victory Capital Earns Positive Outlook
While the broader market grapples with valuation fears, Victory Capital has managed to strengthen its credit profile, prompting S&P Global Ratings to revise its outlook on the asset manager to “positive.” The ratings agency expects Victory to maintain its leverage below 3.0x over the next 12 months, a testament to the company’s disciplined approach to capital management.
Victory has successfully reduced its debt burden by financing major acquisitions with equity rather than piling on new leverage. The firm has also utilized operating cash flow to handle contingent consideration payments and refinanced existing debt. For the rolling twelve months ending September 30, 2025, Victory’s S&P-adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio stood at 2.1x. This marks a significant improvement from 2.3x at the end of 2024 and 2.9x at the close of 2023. As of December 31, 2025, the company reported $983 million in total debt stemming from a term loan that matures in 2032.
Growth Through Strategic Partnership
A key driver of Victory’s improved standing has been its ability to scale assets under management (AUM) while keeping leverage in check. The company completed a strategic partnership with Amundi in April 2025, structured as an all-stock transaction. This deal not only expanded Victory’s footprint outside the U.S. and enhanced its distribution across Europe and other global regions, but it also significantly boosted its asset base.
By the end of 2025, Victory’s total AUM reached $313.8 billion, an 82.5% jump compared to the previous year. This surge was primarily fueled by the $114 billion added via the acquisition of Amundi U.S.—now rebranded as Pioneer Investments—alongside market appreciation.
Navigating Industry Headwinds
Despite these strategic wins, Victory Capital has not been immune to the broader industry shift toward lower-fee passive products. The firm recorded net outflows of $4.5 billion in 2025. However, the situation appears to be stabilizing; this figure is an improvement over the $7.4 billion in outflows seen in 2024 and $5.6 billion in 2023. Importantly, gross inflows actually increased throughout 2025, suggesting the business remains resilient.
Furthermore, the integration of Amundi is yielding tangible financial benefits. By the end of 2025, Victory had realized $97 million in net cost synergies from the transaction, with another $13 million expected by late 2026. These efficiencies are helping to support the company’s above-average EBITDA margins.
S&P noted that it could raise Victory’s ratings within the next year if the firm sustains leverage below the 3.0x threshold while maintaining moderate AUM growth and stable margins. In a market environment where insiders are cashing out and volatility is rising, Victory Capital’s focus on balance sheet health and cost synergy offers a counter-narrative of stability.
